Mobile operators are becoming increasingly willing to adopt business models that promise a sharp reduction in costs, including sharing network infrastructure and outsourcing business functions, such as networks and mobile content.
Wholesale business models are becoming more attractive to operators as they seek strategies to reach new market segments via MVNOs and to earn money from their broadband capabilities.
Traditional retail models in mature markets will be tested as operators move to longer contracts and SIM-only services and away from handset subsidies. This will mean greater interest in handset retail from the manufacturers and third parties and a greater focus on brand-related retention strategies from operators.
Operators will increasingly use multiplay bundles and usage-based billing strategies to help drive flat-rate value. Many markets will also see increased segmentation for flat-rate tariffs.
New models for operator relationships will create a huge pool of applications and help expand the mobile Internet space in 2009. However, operators in developed markets will struggle to avoid becoming the much-feared bit-pipe player as major brands from adjacent sectors eat into the walled-garden business model.
Nokia, Apple, Google et al. are blazing a trail that is already undermining operators’ relationships with their customers, and it will be accompanied by an erosion of revenues as voice becomes more commoditized and is not offset by an increase in data revenue.
The divergent trends in emerging and developed markets will narrow as 3G rollout and take-up begin in earnest in major developing markets, such as Brazil, China and India. 2009 will also see emerging-market operators continue their journey along the development curve already taken by operators in mature markets. This will mean that operators in these markets will see more pressure on ARPU levels, which will only be narrowly offset by a growth in subscriptions numbers.
Segmentation will grow in importance because of the continuing commoditization of voice services and modest take-up of new mobile services and revenues streams. Operators will move away from simply segmenting their customers into broad usage- and age-related segments and will look to MVNOs for guidance toward microsegmentation as the undisputed experts in this area.
Mobile roaming will stay in the spotlight. Data roaming will become key to maintaining margins, particularly for EU operators, and there will be moves toward flat-rate and zoned pricing for data, as exists with voice. Outside Europe, new business models that effectively eliminate roaming surcharges for subscribers using some networks will become entrenched and probably spread.
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